Nostradamus of US polls on ‘October surprises’: Kamala Harris will win

Renowned American election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus of US presidential polls,” is standing by his September 6 prediction that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential race against Republican candidate Donald Trump, despite any potential “October surprise”.
“Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States,” Lichtman stated in a video for The New York Times on September 6.
With the US presidential election set for November 5, American voters have just weeks to decide who will succeed Joe Biden.
Lichtman, a professor at American University, first made his prediction in early September, highlighting that Harris holds the advantage over Trump in eight of the 13 key categories he uses to assess election outcomes.
During a CNN interview on Saturday, Lichtman emphasised that he has never changed a prediction due to an “October surprise”, referring to unexpected political developments late in a campaign.
“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise,” Lichtman told CNN’s Michael Smerconish. “I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauge the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign,” according to the New York Post.
Historically, “October surprises” have impacted elections, such as the 2016 leak of the “Access Hollywood” tape where Trump made controversial remarks about women. Despite this, Trump still won the election, a result that Lichtman had accurately predicted using his “keys” system, according to the New York Post.
Although Lichtman’s predictions have been largely accurate, he has faced criticism in certain instances.
For example, in 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win the presidency based on the popular vote, despite George W Bush winning the Electoral College.
However, in 2016, Lichtman correctly forecast Trump’s victory, even though Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Lichtman, a registered Democrat, insists that his predictions are based on objective criteria and that he hasn’t altered his forecasting method in over 40 years.
He remains confident that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election on November 5.
Despite his confidence, Lichtman urged Americans to cast their votes, saying, “The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”